Analysis of Scenarios

The analysis of scenarios in contexts of socio-environmental conflicts may be a key element when supporting territorial management. Such is the case of the basin of the Orotoy River, where there are power inequities and an intricate variety of actors involved.

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One important function of the analysis of scenarios in the context of socio-ecological systems (SES) evaluation is that it offers a focus in which the possible implications of different decisions that are taken in a territory may be reflected upon in a structured manner^1,2 Such analysis is particularly useful to evaluate the future development of complex and uncertain systems³ such as SES. In this way this tool allows for decision making in the long term for the tuning of socio-economic and environmental objectives^4,5, human welfare, and environmental sustainability.

Different scenarios may be constructed based on participation of the actors, scientific information, or a combination of both⁶ (qualitative, quantitative, mixed). Qualitative scenarios incorporate information from social actors as narratives or visual symbols. Quantitative scenarios use models based on social, economic, and environmental information to create trends that determine future scenarios³. Finally, mixed scenarios combine quantitative and qualitative information by minimizing deficiencies of quantitative and scientific information and the absence or low participation of actors. Thus mixed scenarios are a methodological challenge^7,8 and their application is ideal in the context of environmental conflicts.

A SES for which analysis scenarios have been developed is the basin of the Orotoy River, where multiple ecological, economic, and social interests converge. Additionally, there is a variety of actors that have complex relations with the ecosystem services of the region. The differentiated dynamics along the basin⁹ foster the existence of environmental conflicts, thereby increasing social and ecological vulnerability in a context of climate change.

Under this context, in the scenario analysis technical elements and the participation of the different actors associated to the basin were integrated. Consequently, an ideal scenario of collective construction was found. Since it is a participative tool, the analysis of scenarios allowed for a dialogue between scientific, traditional, and local knowledge in which a diverse group of actors (community, sectors, and government) discussed environmental subjects that affect them and the decisions that relate to the model of development that is planned for their territories.

The context analyzed in the Orotoy River basin is similar to that of other territories in Colombia, where multiple parts are in conflict, there are few spaces of participation and inclusion, and the visions about development and the territory are polarized. In these circumstances, the analysis of scenarios may be an essential instrument for territorial management. In fact, the scenarios found in Orotoy may be applied to other territories to favor the construction of ideal scenarios that may hold diverse interests in harmony.

▲ Scenarios ▼

Definition of scenarios

Ideal

The scenario in which ecosystems maintain an adequate capacity for offering benefits to everyone (water, food, entertainment, tourism, agriculture, etc.) and productive systems based on local economy achieve the appropriate management of ecosystems without affecting other actors in the area. Additionally, a participative and including governance, in which all decisions that affect the territory are discussed in committees and groups that are representative of the community (ranchers, peasant farmers, palmers, etc.), is developed.

Green growth without social inclusion

A scenario in which the major productive sectors (palm, petroleum, and cattle raising) achieve an equilibrium between activities and environmental impact. However, an inclusive governance is not attained because other actors (peasant farmers, local population, etc.) are not taken into account. Therefore social inequities may increase, as well as conflicts with actors that hold different views about the territories and consider their activities and environment to be at risk.

Usual

The scenario in which a productive development that is unsustainable nor socially inclusive is developed. In it, productive sectors impact basic ecosystem services that affect other actors. There is an expansion of environmental conflicts, that have at their center the exclusion of communities when making decisions that affect the territory, corruption, and environmental degradation. Also, environmental problems linked to water resources (access and quality) increase.

Pessimistic

The scenario in which the offer of ecosystem services and benefits for everyone (water, agriculture, etc), even productive sectors, are lost due to high levels of ecosystem degradation. Economical activities are impaired and there is a social problematic that is evidenced in unemployment and serious environmental problems related to the access to water. There is an expansion of social conflicts that is not only related to environmental issues but also economic problems.

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